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In the Blink of an Eye, We’re Turning Back the Climatic Clock by 50 Million Years

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This animation based on computer modeling shows what climatic conditions will look like out to the year 2280 if we emissions of greenhouse gases are not restrained. The color coding shows how future conditions would compare to climates of the past. (Source: "Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates," K. D. Burke et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2018, 201809600; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1809600115)

This animation depicts climatic conditions out to 2280 assuming emissions of greenhouse gases are not restrained. The color coding shows how future conditions would compare to past climates, with lighter orange corresponding to the Pliocene Epoch about 3 million years ago, and darker orange to the Eocene about 50 million years ago. Dark red indicates future climatic conditions with no past analog. (Source: “Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates,” K. D. Burke et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2018, 2018)

Absent serious action on climate change, we’ll continue careening toward a climatic cliff. And modern civilization will be hard-pressed to survive the plunge.

This is the essential take-away from new research probing Earth’s climatic past to yield insights into our future. The research finds that if our emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases continue unabated, Earth’s climate will warm by the year 2150 to levels not seen since the largely ice-free Eocene Epoch about 50 million years ago.

That may seem like a long time on a human timescale. But consider that the research shows we’re currently on course to reversing 50 million years of cooling in just a couple of centuries. That may be so rapid that it will outpace our ability to adapt our agricultural and other modern life support systems.

Thanks to our emissions of greenhouse gases, “the Earth system is well along on a trajectory to a climate state different from any experienced in our history of agricultural civilizations,” write Kevin Burke and his co-authors in a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Here’s why that’s troubling: Modern human civilizations, made possible by agriculture, have thrived in what scientists term “a safe operating space,” meaning a stable, relatively benign climate. But now, staying within that safe space seems to be “increasingly unlikely,” the researchers write.

“If we think about the future in terms of the past, where we are going is uncharted territory for human society,” says the study’s lead author, Kevin Burke, in a press release. Burke led the research while he was a graduate student in the lab of paleoecologist John “Jack” Williams of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“We are moving toward very dramatic changes over an extremely rapid time frame, reversing a planetary cooling trend in a matter of centuries,” Burke says.

Temperature trends for the past 65 million years and potential geohistorical analogs for future climates. Red arrows show six geohistorical states of the climate system: Paleocene, Miocene, Oligocene, TK, TK and TK. A time series showing global mean annual temperatures is also shown. Major patterns include a long-term cooling trend, periodic fluctuations driven by changes in the Earth’s orbit, and recent and projected warming trends. Temperature anomalies are relative to 1961–1990 global means. (Source: TKTK

Temperature trends for the past 65 million years and potential past analogs for future climates. Red arrows show  “geohistorical” states of the climate system. From the left, these are the early Eocene Epoch; the mid-Pliocene; the last interglacial, or LIG; the mid-Holocene; the pre-industrial period; the historical period; and projections for the future (at extreme right). The time series shows how global mean annual temperatures departed from the 1961 to 1990 mean. Major patterns include a 50-million-year cooling trend beginning in the Eocene, periodic fluctuations driven by changes in the Earth’s orbit, the recent warming caused by human activities, and projected warming. (Source: “Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates,” K. D. Burke et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2018, 2018)

To conduct the research, Burke and his colleagues compared climatic conditions of several periods in geologic history with computer model projections of the future. These projections assumed different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

One sobering finding was that we are already headed toward a climatic state like that of the mid-Pliocene Epoch about 3 million years ago even if we do manage to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases. In fact, thanks to burning of fossil fuels and other human activities, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are already at Pliocene levels: more than 400 parts per million. We just don’t have a Pliocene-like climate yet because most of the planet’s surface is covered in oceans — and all that water takes time to warm up.

The research shows that if we undertake moderate emissions reductions, we’ll stabilize at Pliocene-like temperatures by 2040. During the Pliocene, temperatures were between 3.2 and 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.8 to 3.6 degrees Celsius) warmer than they are today.

At their peak, sea level during the Pliocene stood 72 feet (22 meters) higher than today. Luckily, inertia in the climate system means that it would take a few centuries before sea level would come up to that level again. (Looking at past climates, scientists have documented maximum rates of sea level rise of three to five meters per century.)

Even so, Pliocene-like temperatures should bring a host of climate impacts that will prove challenging for modern societies to adapt to. And over time, we’ll have to deal with that Pliocene-like sea level rise.

“There is a very good relationship between sea level and temperature on the planet,” says James White, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the current research. “If you warm up air, and you warm up water, you melt ice. And when land ice melts and goes into the ocean, you raise sea level.”

The 20 meters of sea level rise that correspond to a Pliocene-like climate “is enormous,” White says. It would submerge coastal cities around the globe which are currently home to many tens of millions of human beings.

The silver lining is that by reducing carbon emissions, we’d at least stabilize climatically without things getting even more challenging. But if we don’t reduce our emissions, the planet will continue to warm — quite dramatically.

By the year 2150, Earth’s average temperature would rise by a staggering 23 degrees Fahrenheit (13 degrees Celsius) above current conditions, taking them to Eocene-like levels. During that geologic epoch, there was no permanent ice on the planet, and sea level is estimated to have been at least 100 meters higher than today.

If we follow this path, the rapid change we’d trigger would be without precedent during the entire Cenozoic Era, the age of mammals, which began about 65 million years ago when the dinosaurs went extinct.

“What the planet’s going to do is very predictable,” White observes. Basic physics plus research on past climatic states provides confidence that “temperatures will rise, sea level will go up, and storms will get worse. It’s all very predictable. What’s not is how we will respond.”

I don’t know about you, but I’d prefer to respond in a way that would leave us in the Pliocene, not the Eocene.

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Ecology

Yukon and Northern BC First Nations tackle climate change using Indigenous knowledge and science

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YUKON, June 18, 2021 /CNW/ – The Government of Canada is working together in partnership with Indigenous and Northern communities in finding solutions to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the North.

Today, Minister of Northern Affairs, Daniel Vandal, along with Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Economic Development and Official Languages (Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency), Larry Bagnell, highlighted progress on three unique, Indigenous-led projects that are helping communities in Yukon and Northern British Columbia adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

The Minister and Parliamentary Secretary met virtually with Carcross/Tagish First Nation (C/TFN) to learn about their community-led climate change monitoring program. C/TFN has partnered with Tsay Keh Dene Nation (TKDN) and Chu Cho Environmental of Prince George, British Columbia, to build a community-led monitoring project that examines environmental data and Indigenous knowledge to create a holistic picture of how the climate is changing across C/TFN and TKDN traditional territories. The project combines tracking of current and historical climate trends with knowledge shared by Elders while also providing opportunities for youth mentorship and climate change awareness.

The Taku River Tlingit First Nation (TRTFN) is also leading a unique project to assess the impacts of climate change within their traditional territory. Climate change is causing many of the culturally significant ice patches to melt, exposing organic artifacts to oxygen and leading to rapid deterioration. The TRTFN ice patch mapping project will involve performing archaeological assessments to prevent the degradation of artifacts. Research will be guided by traditional knowledge, Elders and oral histories, when available, and heavily involve community, Elders, youth and Knowledge Keepers.

The Pelly Crossing Selkirk Development Corporation is leading the Selkirk Wind Resource Assessment project through the installation of a Sonic Detection and Ranging (SODAR) system. The initiative includes a feasibility study leading up to the construction of a renewable energy facility, including wind, solar and battery energy storage. Expanding clean energy within the region will have direct benefits for communities, including reduced reliance on diesel, job creation and revenue generation for Selkirk First Nation. 

These projects are delivering important environmental, social and economic benefits that lead to healthier, more sustainable and resilient communities across Yukon and Northern British Columbia. They also build community clean energy capacity and help to avoid the impacts of climate change.

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Ecology

Atlantic Provinces Ready For Aquaculture Growth

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Aquaculture is an important economic driver for rural, coastal and Indigenous communities, and Atlantic Canada is well positioned to increase aquaculture production as global demand for sustainably sourced seafood grows.

That is why the ministers responsible for aquaculture in the Atlantic provinces have agreed to the ongoing development and management of their industries based on common principles. A new memorandum of understanding has been signed by the four ministers, which extends the previous agreement signed in 2008.

“In a time when food security is especially important, it is good to see our aquaculture industry has grown steadily and is poised for continued growth in 2021 based on environmentally responsible, science-based policies and practices,” said Keith Colwell, Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture for Nova Scotia. “Our Atlantic partnership continues to help the industry grow sustainably.”

Cooperation between the provinces and the aquaculture industry has led to improvements in pest management, environmentally sustainable aquaculture methods, aquatic animal health and policies to support the shared use of marine and freshwater resources. It also aims to align regulation and policy between the provinces to make the regulatory requirements easier to understand by industry and the public.

Each province has a comprehensive and robust legislative and regulatory framework to ensure environmental sustainability, economic prosperity and public accountability. The provinces update their legislation and regulations regularly. Nova Scotia revamped its regulatory framework in 2015; New Brunswick received Royal Assent for a new Aquaculture Act in 2019 and is working on the supporting regulations; Newfoundland and Labrador completely revised its aquaculture policy in 2019; and Prince Edward Island has recently drafted a new Aquaculture Act.

The ministers have agreed to continue to use science-based evidence for management decisions, thereby increasing public and investor confidence in the Atlantic Canadian aquaculture industry.

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Ecology

COMING SOON: A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy 2.0

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We all want the same thing: a clean and responsible energy future for our children and future generations while continuing to enjoy a high standard of living.

On December 11, 2020, the Prime Minister announced a new climate plan which he claimed will help achieve Canada’s economic and environmental goals.

The proposed plan by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) entitled “A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy” will have an initial investment of $15 billion of taxpayer’s money. It is built on 5 pillars of action:

  1) Making the Places Canadians Live and Gather More Affordable by Cutting Energy Waste

2) Making Clean, Affordable Transportation and Power Available in Every Community

3) Continuing to Ensure Pollution isn’t Free and Households Get More Money Back

4) Building Canada’s Clean Industrial Advantage

5) Embracing the Power of Nature to Support Healthier Families and More Resilient Communities  

In my paper, “A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy 2.0” I will objectively critique each pillar in the government’s new climate plan and provide alternative solutions to the same issues.

  This is an alternative plan that supports workers, protects lower income earners and creates economic growth while respecting the environment and focusing on the dignity of work.

  This plan abandons virtue-signaling projects and relies on Canadian ingenuity to build our economy and restore Canada’s role of responsible leadership in the world.

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