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Financial crash WARNING: The BIGGEST threat facing the economy in 2019 REVEALED | City & Business | Finance

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The economy has been plagued by fears from analysts of an impending global financial crash in the not-so distant future, with investors rattled over geopolitical tensions and a trade war between the two most powerful nations. The United States could cause global financial chaos if markets lose confidence in President Donald Trump and trade war tensions between China begin to escalate, Yrjö Koskinen told Express.co.uk. From a region perspective, a no-deal Brexit, yellow-vest protests in France and long-term growth problems in Italy, were listed as possible points of contention for the European economy. Britain leaving the European Union without a deal would be “an economic disaster” for the UK, according to Mr Koskinen, and would have knock-on effects for the rest of the bloc.

Brexit uncertainty has already proved detrimental for the pound with Sterling losing around 13 percent compared to the day of the referendum.

While in France, protests over planned hikes in diesel taxes have sparked political instability with President Emmanuel Macron facing the biggest challenge to his presidency.

Mr Macron has been forced to back down on his fuel tax increases after violent protests have hit French cities.

At the same time, Italy found itself locked in a bitter war of words against EU finance chiefs over its controversial budget plans.

The cabinet had originally unveiled the budget in October, targeting a deficit equivalent to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product – three times bigger than the previous government had promised.

The political upheaval has left the euro floundering against major currencies as the nation battles, with the Italian government lowering its economic growth forecast for 2019 to 1.0 percent from 1.5 percent.

Mr Koskinen, Associate Dean for Research and an Associate Professor of Finance at the Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary, said: “The problems in Europe may lead to a regional financial crisis for example if foreign investors keep on selling Italian government bonds and the yield spread vis-à-vis Germany keeps on widening.

“But I don’t believe that European problems would cause a global crisis.”

But it is problems in the United States that could cause wide-scale global impact, according to Mr Koskinen.

The risk of a US recession in the next two years has risen to 40 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists

Reuters attributed the concerns to the flattening of the US yield curve – with the spread between two- and 10-year note yields falling to less than 10 basis points.

This is the smallest gap since the run-up to the last US recession.

A flattening yield curve suggests investors believe economic growth and inflation will slow, Reuters claimed.

Mr Koskinen warned the collapse of the Trump administration could cause a huge sell-off of stocks in the US if the President loses confidence from voters.

This could then spark an escalation in the ongoing trade war with China in an attempt to cover up political instability.

Mr Koskinen said: “Political instability in the US may cause a global economic crisis.

“If the Trump administration collapses in 2019 and the markets lose all confidence in the administration’s capacity to govern, we may see a huge sell-off of stocks in the US.

“Things may get even worse, if the desperate Trump administration starts a trade war with China as a distraction from its domestic problems.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released several downcast forecasts this year, detailing concerns over how the economy is not prepared for the event of collapsing.

Back in October, the IMF warned of “large challenges” ahead “to prevent a second Great Depression” as the international organisation claimed the world markets are at risk of another meltdown, some 10 years after the Lehman Brothers investment bank collapsed.

Then this month, David Lipton, the first deputy managing director of the IMF, warned of “storm clouds building” as he spoke of fears that “crisis prevention is incomplete”.

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Future of Ottawa: Coffee with Francis Bueckert

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Francis Bueckert: When it comes to the current landscape of coffee-roasting companies and independent cafes in Ottawa, I think we are at a really interesting moment in time. There are more local roasters that are doing artisanal small-batch production—with more attention to the quality and origin of the beans.

With larger corporations such as Starbucks closing locations, it has opened a bit of space for local players to grow. We have been lucky to work with many folks in the coffee-roasting community, and we have found that there is a willingness to collaborate among different coffee roasters. For example, when Cloudforest started back in 2014, we were roasting our coffee at Happy Goat and it was the expertise of their head roaster Hans that helped me learn how to roast. Other companies such as Brown Bag Coffee have also lent a hand when we needed extra roasting capacity. There are others, such as Lulo, Mighty Valley Coffee, Bluebarn, The Artery, and Little Victories that are also part of the growing local coffee community. It’s small roasters like these who have shown me what a coffee community can look like, and that we can help to elevate each other, rather than being locked in competition.

If you care to make a prediction… What’s happening to the local café industry in 2021?

We believe that there is hope and that 2021 can be a big pivot year for small roasters and cafes.

This year will not be ideal from a business point of view. However, it could create a shift in people’s attitude toward where they get their coffee. We are holding out hope that people will support the roasters and cafes that are local to help them economically survive what is in all reality a very difficult time.

It all depends on where consumers decide to go this year. People are starting to recognize that supporting large corporations at this moment will be at the cost of the local roasters and cafes. There is the growing realization that a future where there is only Amazon, Walmart, and Starbucks would be pretty bleak. So we have an opportunity this year to support the kind of local businesses that we want to see thrive.

In your wildest dreams, what will the landscape for local coffee roasters and cafés look like in your lifetime?

In my wildest dreams, all of the coffee roasters and cafés would be locally owned and independent. They would all be focused on direct trade and artisanal coffee. Each different coffee roaster and café would know exactly where their coffee came from. Ideally, each company would be a partnership between the farmers who grow the beans and the people here selling them. There would be a focus on how to cooperate and collaborate with the farmers in the countries of origin to share the benefits around. We would all work together and share orders of cups, lids, and other packaging so that we could get better bulk pricing. In this way, we would make our local coffee community so efficient that the large corporate coffee companies wouldn’t even be able to compete.

We would also like to see people use coffee as a way to create social good. For example, we started Cloudforest as a way of helping support farmers in Ecuador who were taking a stand against large mining companies. This remote community stood up to protect their environment, so that they could have clean drinking water and soil for the next generation. They started an organic coffee cooperative to help show that there are other models of development, and we are doing our part year after year to help support their vision. They have a vision of development that does not include mass deforestation and contamination, and organic coffee is a key (among others) to show that another way forward is possible.

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Special events in the Ottawa Valley dominate annual OVTA tourism awards

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The Ottawa Valley Tourist Association hopes that its annual tourism awards will provide a little sunshine during what is a dark time for local tourism operators because of the pandemic.

The Ottawa Valley Tourism Awards are presented annually by the Ottawa Valley Tourist Association (OVTA) to individuals, businesses, and events that recognize the importance of working together for the growth of the local tourism industry, as well as offering exceptional visitor experiences.

“After a year that saw a lot of businesses in the hospitality and tourism industry being challenged like never before, the annual Ottawa Valley Tourism Awards represent a bit of light on the horizon” said Chris Hinsperger, co-owner of the Bonnechere Caves.

The Ottawa Valley Tourist Association’s (OVTA) Awards Committee co-chairpersons, Meghan James and Chris Hinsperger, said they were very pleased with the recent nominations received, especially in the Special Events category. Submissions were received for The Farm to Fork Dinner Series at the Whitewater Inn; Light up the Valley; The Eganville Curling Clubs’ Rock the Rings; The Ontario Festival of Small Halls ; The Bonnechere Caves On-line Underground Concert Series; The Opeongo Nordic Ski Clubs’ Ski Loppet; The Tour de Bonnechere — Ghost de Tour 2020; and The Bonnechere Caves Rock ‘n Roll Parking Lot Picnic.

“During a time when communities were challenged, it is nice to see that people still made an effort to get together and celebrate, albeit under certain conditions. It just shows the creativity and resiliency of our tourism Community here in the valley” said Meghan James, director of sales at the Pembroke Best Western.

There are three Award categories: The Marilyn Alexander Tourism Champion Award, The Business of Distinction and The Special Event of the Year.

Hinsperger, is excited about this year’s awards.

“During this pandemic the hospitality and tourism industry was the first to be hit, was the hardest hit and will be the last of our industries to fully recover. As Valley entrepreneurs we owe it to ourselves, to our businesses and to our communities to be an active part of that recovery. Our livelihood and economic recovery depends on our efforts. And we will get back to welcoming people from all over the world to share a little bit of the place we are privileged to call home. This awards process leaves myself and others fully optimistic about our positive outcomes.”

Award winners will be announced at the Ottawa Valley Tourist Association’s virtual annual general meeting on Monday, May 31.

The OVTA is the destination marketing organization for the Upper Ottawa Valley and proudly represents more than 200 tourism businesses, comprised of attractions and outfitters, accommodation, food, beverage and retail establishments, artists and galleries, municipalities, as well as media and industry suppliers. The OVTA is supported by the County of Renfrew, Renfrew County municipalities and the City of Pembroke.

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Future of Ottawa: Farming with Jeremy Colbeck

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Jeremy Colbeck: Well first, let’s talk about what we mean by farming. Although farms, and farming as an occupation, are in decline across Canada, they are still a major part of our rural landscape. That’s even more true for a strange city like Ottawa which includes a LOT of rural areas and whose urban boundary takes, what, three hours to cross? About 40 per cent of the rural land in Ottawa is farmland. Most of that farming is corn and soybean cash-crop, as well as some dairy and livestock farming. That’s mostly conventional farming (the kind that is profitable but not exactly where you take your kids on a Saturday).

There are also a lot of agri-tourism businesses in Ottawa, which give you that oh-so-good Saturday spot for family donkey-petting and apple-picking. And it’s totally understandable from a business perspective, but sometimes surprising to find out, that even though they grow some of the Christmas trees they sell, they might also be reselling some that come from much larger farms far away. The farmland around Ottawa is also inflated in price because of its proximity to the city, where it is in demand by would-be hobby farmers—folks who want to do some farming on their property in their spare time but make their money (to subsidize their small-scale farming habit) elsewhere. Unfortunately, many of these properties will have large mansions built on them, which will then make them completely unaffordable for the average farmer

There’s also a segment of small-to-medium-sized Ottawa farms that grow “premium” (artisanal, unique, extra-fresh, ecologically- or organically-grown etc…) products that they sell directly to local eaters via farmers’ markets or other direct marketing channels, including on-farm stores and farm stands. That’s where BeetBox fits in.

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