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International trade in 2018: making sense of a ‘tarrifying’ year

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CBC News surveyed a dozen Canadian and American researchers, lecturers, lawyers and business advocates to sum up this complicated and often frustrating year in international trade.

Here are a few highlights from what they shared with us.

What was the biggest surprise?

“The fact that Donald Trump carried through with steel and aluminum tariffs,” said Mark Agnew, director of international policy for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.  “People thought, ‘Surely he’s not going to do this against Canada.'”

They thought wrong.

“That really shocked me,” agreed Debra Steger, a former Canadian trade official now on the University of Ottawa’s law faculty, adding that Trump’s escalating tariff strategy over the last year caused a “ripple effect” of consequences — including retaliatory tariffs from other countries, Canada among them.

“Everything has been driven by the initial tarrifying actions that were deliberately taken by the United States as a cudgel over everyone’s heads to negotiate,” she said.

(Her use of the word ‘tarrifying’ serves double-duty as a pun. Trump’s indiscriminate use of tarrifs is terrifying for those who believe in international trade law.)

The new level of bullying was a surprise, she said. “We had never seen U.S. administrations behave that way before.”

“I thought this government was too pro-business to allow (the tariffs) to stay in place,” said Todd Tucker, a fellow at Washington D.C.’s Roosevelt Institute. “I underestimated the way Republicans rallied around Trump.”

Inu Manak, a Canadian trade researcher who now works at the Cato Institute, said she was caught off-guard by the level of Trump’s hostility toward Canada.

“At first I thought maybe he’s just joking around, and it’s a negotiating tactic,” she said.

But the tariffs persist, even after the revised North American trade agreement was signed.

“It was genuinely shocking, and genuinely negative for the bilateral relationship,” said Meredith Lilly, the Simon Reisman chair at Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.

What don’t people get?

“I don’t think the average person understood how completely integrated we are with the U.S. economy, and how foolish the idea that we would tell the Americans to bugger off would be,” said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturer’s Association.

Trump’s presidential powers became a topic of fierce legal debate in 2018. Can he just terminate NAFTA if Congress won’t ratify the revisions he wants?

The U.S. presidency has been given a lot of authority over trade matters over the years, Manak said, but “the fact that this Congress has not pushed back a lot on a lot of stuff he’s done, doesn’t mean they can’t.”

U.S. House Speaker designate Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer met President Trump at the White House earlier this month. The Democratic leaders didn’t shy away from confrontation, and it’s not clear they’ll be willing to work with the administration to ratify the revised NAFTA. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

That’s why the election of a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives in November could be “a little destabilizing,” but good for the democratic process, she said.

“There’s the strong impression that he can just just unilaterally go back to pre-NAFTA tariffs on Canada and Mexico,” Tucker said. “I don’t know any constitutional law professor that thinks that.”

The public and partisan debate over Trump’s powers has generated more “heat than light,” he said, by not properly acknowledging that Congressional authority over tariffs.

Brian Kingston, vice-president for international and fiscal policy with the Business Council of Canada, said he thinks the Canadian public hasn’t properly grasped the role of Congress in trade deals, either.

But the Canadian government gets it, he said, “hence their very comprehensive lobbying and advocacy campaign” — especially important as long as Congressional ratification remains uncertain.

Trade lawyer Mark Warner doesn’t buy the argument that Trump can’t unilaterally terminate a trade treaty and throw everything into chaos.

The Canadian negotiators, Warner said, should have agreed to a deal earlier in the year, before the tariffs landed — even if that meant conceding more.

He said he thinks Ottawa misjudged the dynamics of the NAFTA negotiations from the start.

“The idea that Mexico was joined at the hip with Canada and wouldn’t go out on its own … it just didn’t make a lot of sense,” he said. “Our interests are not completely aligned and it’s something that we have now learned.”

What stories were overblown?

Lilly said she found the NAFTA negotiations were generally overhyped, with a lot of “false drama” coming from the Canadian side before the talks ended with a deal that turned out to be quite predictable.

“Much ado about very little change,” agreed Monica de Bolle, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Very anticlimactic.”

Her office did a lot of work trying to anticipate the disruption Trump’s threatened auto tariffs might trigger. But despite the hype, those tariffs haven’t materialized.

At least, not yet. (The U.S. Commerce Department report on whether automotive imports are a “national security” threat is due by February.)

“We were all concerned about ‘carmageddon,'” Volpe said, “but I wonder if the Americans would have pulled that trigger, because the bullet would have gone through both of us.”

The room was a bit tense as the revised North American trade agreement was signed Nov. 30. Outgoing Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto’s decision to announce a deal with the U.S. before Canada had concluded its negotiations made the final weeks difficult for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

Agnew said the debate over Canada insisting on a cultural exemption also offered more drama than substance.

“In the end it was the dog that didn’t bark, with the retention of the exemption.”

Another new feature in NAFTA 2.0 — article 32.10 on negotiating a trade deal with a “non-market economy” (read: China) — will have “very little impact,” said Carlo Dade, director of the trade and investment centre at the Canada West Foundation.

“I don’t think it’s a total nothing, but it’s certainly not going to take away Canadian sovereignty and Canada’s ability to negotiate with China in the future,” Steger said.

What warranted more discussion?

“If there is a Russian strategy to undermine multilateralism and U.S. leadership of the global economy, it’s really more about economics than it is about defence,” said George Washington University’s Susan Aaronson.

The most competitive Canadian and American exports in the future will be agricultural commodities and services. But for both export sectors to succeed, they need trusted partners in world markets and a strong global consensus on what constitutes appropriate behaviour, Aaronson said.

Trump undermined all this, she said, which hurt Canada’s integrated economy — and left the Trudeau government little choice but to diversify its trade through other deals.

“It’s a good thing Canada’s doing that,” Aaronson said, “but in the long run, it’s a bad thing.” North America, she said, is more competitive when it works together. Plus, the world will miss U.S. leadership on trade — and it might not like what replaces it.

“We haven’t talked enough about what happens to Latin American relations in the middle of the confusion over the China-U.S. relationship,” said de Bolle, an expert on the region. “The region is very complicated right now.”

The new left-leaning, nationalist Mexican administration, for example, has closer ties to China, de Bolle said. The foreign policy of Brazil’s new government, a major economic player, is “crazy to me,” she added. And the Chinese are also securing key oil resources in Venezuela, as that country’s economy continues to implode.

Trade lawyer Cyndee Todgham Cherniak said she thinks businesses are only just beginning to wake up to the consequences of politicians escalating economic sanctions against countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia. The arrest of a Huawei executive in Vancouver, she said, may be only the beginning.

Canada’s new Magnitsky Act — a law allowing Canada to go after the assets of foreign officials implicated in human rights violations — should get more attention, she added, particularly if it’s applied to Saudi Arabia. “It will have a significant effect on companies carrying on business worldwide.”

Long-term consequences?

The effects of what unfolded over the last year may be felt for years to come.

“The hardening American consensus around Chinese trade practices is something that is here to stay,” Warner said, “even if Trump is defeated in 2020.”

“You would have seen Hillary Clinton do some of the same things” on China, said Tucker.

But what the history books will emphasize is Trump’s use of “national security” as an excuse for protecting domestic steel and aluminum industries, Tucker argues. Other countries already have started to follow suit, bringing unprecedented instability to the global trade system Americans once fought to establish.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump had a “working dinner” after the G20 leaders summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina earlier this month. They announced a 90-day “truce” in their tariff war while officials attempt to work out a deal to de-escalate the conflict. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

Dade calls Trump’s ongoing tariff war “the nuclear option.”

“The unthinkable has become normalized,” he said.

That puts a lot of pressure on countries like Canada, which are now being forced to pick a side.

“It’s going to affect every trade discussion that we have from now on,” Volpe said. “You’re going to have to know what the American position is before you even attempt a discussion with us.”

The American insistence on a sunset clause for NAFTA (even if it was watered down in the final text) reflects an increasing climate of protectionism in the U.S. that “isn’t a cyclical trend. That’s here to stay,” said Kingston.

“The very negative rhetoric and some of the missteps along the way have created the conditions that we may look back in 20 years and say this fundamentally changed the Canada–U.S. relationship,” Lilly said.

“Down the road we’re going to look back and say, ‘I wish this never happened,'” Manak said. “I’m a little nervous.”

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Canadian Tire and NuPort Robotics to commercialize Canada’s first automated heavy duty trucks

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Canadian Tire Corporation and Toronto based start-up NuPort Robotics, Canada’s first autonomous trucking company, are partnering with the Ontario government to invest $3 million to undertake an automated heavy duty trucking project to test a “first-of-its-kind-in-the-world” technology. 

The breakthrough technology provides a transportation solution for the middle mile, the short-haul shuttle runs that semi-tractor trailers make between distribution centres, warehouses and terminals each day.

It is designed to enable next-generation automated trucks that are more fuel efficient, safer to operate, and provide an enhanced driver experience.

Backed by $1 million in support from the Ontario government through Ontario’s Autonomous Vehicle Innovation Network and matched by $1 million investments from Canadian Tire and NuPort Robotics, respectively, the two-year project is applying proprietary, artificial intelligence technology from NuPort Robotics to retrofit two conventional semi-tractor trailers – which will always be attended by a driver – with high-tech sensors and controls, a touchscreen navigation system, and other advanced features such as obstacle and collision avoidance.

Caroline Mulroney, Minister of Transportation, says: “Ontario is proud to be a global leader in automated and connected vehicle technology and this innovative project is an exciting milestone toward automated vehicle tech in the trucking industry.

“Ontarians rely on goods being delivered by trucks across the province every day and projects like this are demonstrating the ways that automated truck technology could help businesses meet delivery demands more efficiently while supporting a strong supply chain in Ontario.”

Vic Fedeli, Ontario Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, says: “This project applies unique and made-in-Ontario Artificial Intelligence technology that offers increased safety and efficiency, with a reduced carbon footprint, to the goods supply chains on which we all rely.

“This is the latest example of how Ontario’s Autonomous Vehicle Innovation Network acts as a catalyst, fostering partnerships between ambitious technology start-ups and industry to develop and commercialize next generation transportation technologies that strengthen our economy and benefit society.”

Raghavender Sahdev, CEO of NuPort Robotics, says: “The trucks are currently transporting goods between a Canadian Tire distribution centre in the Greater Toronto Area and nearby rail terminals within a 12.5 mile radius, and early results are promising.

“The aim of the project is to develop a system that incorporates an autopilot feature for conventional trucks with a driver, leading to the most efficient way to drive and increase safety.

“The sensors work as a ‘safety cocoon’ to cover blind spots and prevent accidents and the end result is peak fuel efficiency, meaning lower carbon emissions, and peak driving performance for an overall more optimal transportation experience.”

NuPort Robotic’s approach to autonomous trucking is unique in the industry because it focuses only on solving the middle mile challenge, using a known set of predetermined trucking routes that are repetitive and high frequency as opposed to general highway driving.

Ultimately, when implemented on fixed routes in the future, Canadian Tire will benefit from faster commercial deployments and improvements in supply chain sustainability.

Gary Fast, vice-president of transportation, Canadian Tire, says: “Canadian Tire embraces innovation and is always testing new technologies to improve our operational efficiency and safety.

“As proud Canadian companies, the safety of all stakeholders, including drivers, employees, customers, and public will be the top priority as we work together towards deployment of this technology.”

Cari Covent, vice president of intelligent automation, Canadian Tire, says: “Over the last three years, Canadian Tire has made a significant effort to solve complex business problems by using the Canadian start-up Artificial Intelligence ecosystem, and NuPort Robotics exemplifies what we look for in a start-up with a focus on innovation, automation and artificial intelligence.”

Sahdev says: “As NuPort Robotics continues to develop new technologies to overcome middle mile supply chain problems and advance autonomous trucking, I am extremely grateful for the support of the Ontario Government through AVIN and the Ontario Centre of Innovation.

“With their continued support, we are striving to position Canada as the leader in autonomous transportation.”

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Constellation Software is money in the bank, this fund manager says

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If you’re looking for a long-term hold in Canadian tech then Constellation Software (Constellation Software Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CSU) should definitely be on your radar. So says Jason Del Vicario of Hillside Wealth Management who likes not only Constellation but its recent spin-off Topicus (Topicus Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:TOI) which Del Vicario says could do even better than CSU over the next ten years.

Software consolidator Constellation has been running on the same game plan for years, buying small vertical market software companies providing so-called mission critical software solutions globally. Over the years CSU has completed over 500 such acquisitions, buying the top names in their respective niche verticals and then using its clout and breadth to grow the business and expand into new markets. The resulting cash flow is then plowed back into more acquisitions and the cycle repeats.

The strategy has worked wonders for Constellation, which has grown its revenue from $631 million in 2010 to almost $4 billion for 2020 while taking earnings from $4.12 per share in 2010 to $20.59 per share this past year.

Shareholders were given a special treat last month when Constellation spun out recently acquired Topicus, giving CSU owners about 1.9 Topicus shares for every Constellation share as a dividend-in-kind. Constellation bought Netherlands-based software company Total Specific Solutions BV (or TSS) in 2013 and that subsidiary recently acquired Topicus BV, a Dutch information service company focusing on sectors such as healthcare, education and finance.

Topicus was singled out by Constellation founder Mark Leonard for its ability to grow without using outside shareholder funding. Leonard said the spin-out was part of the intention since a purchase agreement was struck last year.

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Nuvei wins price target raise from National Bank

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Strong quarterly results and an even brighter outlook for 2021 are reasons to celebrate for Canadian payments company Nuvei (Nuvei Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:NVEI), according to National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse. In an update to clients on Wednesday, Tse left his rating unchanged at “Outperform” while raising his price target from C$85.00 to C$100.00.

Montreal-headquartered Nuvei is a provider of payment technology solutions to merchants and partners around the world, with a platform geared for high-growth mobile commerce and e-commerce markets. Nuvei’s solutions include a fully integrated payments engine with global processing capabilities, a turnkey checkout solution and a suite of data-driven business intelligence and risk management tools and services.

The company released its fourth quarter and full year 2020 financials on Wednesday, showing Q4 revenue of $115.9 million, up 46 per cent year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $51.3 million, up 61 per cent year-over-year. Total dollar value of transactions processed by merchants (‘total volume’) with Nuvei rose by 53 per cent to $13.9 billion. (All figures in US dollars except where noted otherwise.)

The 2020 year featured revenue up 53 per cent to $375.0 million and adjusted EBITDA up 87 per cent to $163.0 million, with total volume rising a full 76 per cent year-over-year to $43.2 billion.

“Our performance continues to be driven by strong momentum in the high-growth verticals we serve, as well as by our customizable, scalable and feature-rich technology platform which provides one of the industry’s most complete payment technology solutions going well beyond merchant acquiring,” said Philip Fayer, chairman and CEO, in a press release.

The company said the fourth quarter represented the strongest growth yet experienced by Nuvei, driven by wallet share expansion from current merchants along with accelerated uptake of new merchants. New e-commerce business almost tripled compared to a year earlier, Nuvei said, while the company expanded its connectivity coverage over the quarter, introduced new product innovations on its platform and continued to execute on M&A.

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