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Stocks pin hopes on U.S.-China trade talks after brutal year





World share and commodity prices rose Monday as hints of progress on the U.S.-China trade standoff provided a glimmer of optimism in what has been a punishing 2018 for markets globally.

Europe’s STOXX 600 followed Asia’s lead to push 0.4 per cent higher, and Wall Street futures were up one per cent as traders tried to overcome the worst year for equities since the 2008 financial crisis.

Sentiment had improved when U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that he held a “very good call” with China’s President Xi Jinping on Saturday to discuss trade and claimed “big progress” was being made.

The Wall Street Journal reported the White House was pressing China for more details of how it might increase U.S. exports and loosen regulations that stifle U.S. companies there.

Chinese state media were more reserved, saying Xi hoped the negotiating teams could meet each other half-way and reach an agreement that was mutually beneficial.

Economic data out of China was also unhelpfully mixed, with manufacturing activity contracting for the first time in two years, although the service sector improved.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares managed a 0.6 per cent gain, but it was still down 16 per cent for the year. A sub-index of top Chinese companies lost more than a quarter of its value.

Major indices deep in the red

The story was much the same across the globe, with most major stock indices deep in the red.

Paris made a respectable one per cent on the day, but London’s FTSE fell flat again. They are down 11 and 12 per cent for the year, respectively. Germany’s export-heavy DAX has had it worse, losing more than 18 per cent of its value.

E-Mini futures for Wall Street’s S&P 500 had gained 0.8 per cent ahead of U.S. trading. The index is off almost 10 per cent for December, its worst month since February 2009, down 15 per cent for the quarter and 7 per cent for the year.

“Simply looking at the markets would suggest that the global economy is headed into recession,” said Robert Michele, chief investment officer and head of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Simply looking at the markets would suggest that the global economy is headed into recession. However, while we agree the global economy is in a growth slowdown, we don’t see an impending recession.– Robert Michele, chief investment officer and head of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management

“However, while we agree the global economy is in a growth slowdown, we don’t see an impending recession,” he said, in part because the Federal Reserve could provide a policy cushion.

“Already, commentary out of the Fed suggests that it is nearing the end of a three-year journey to normalize policy,” said Michele.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington on July 18. Fed fund futures have now largely priced out any rate increase for next year. (Mary F. Calvert/Reuters)

No more hikes

Indeed, Fed fund futures have now largely priced out any rate increase for next year and now imply a quarter-point cut by mid-2020.

The Treasury market clearly thinks the Fed is done. Yields on two-year debt have fallen to just 2.52 per cent from a peak of 2.977 per cent in November.

The $15.5 trillion US market is heading for its biggest monthly rally in 2 1/2 years, according to an index compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays.

European bond markets were closed Monday, but the drop in U.S. yields has undermined the dollar in recent weeks. Against a basket of currencies, it was on track to end December with a loss of 0.8 per cent but remained up on the year.

The dollar has also had a tough month against the yen. It lost 2.8 per cent this month and was last trading at just under 110. However, 2018 was mostly stable for the pair, trading all year in a range of 104.55 to 114.54.

The euro was on track to end the month higher at $1.1450 but nursing losses of almost 5 per cent over the year. Sterling made a last push to $1.28, but Brexit woes have cost it more than 5 per cent.

That was trivial compared with the drop in oil prices —Brent crude is down almost 40 per cent since its peak in October. It was last up $1.22 cents at $54.40 a barrel but down 20 per cent for the year. U.S. crude futures nudged up 96 cents to $46.29.

The supply side is tight, but my fear is that with demand weakening it will offset all these supply concerns so we could see inventories begin to pick up.– INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir

Gold rallied almost 5 per cent in the past month to stand at $1,283 an ounce.

Copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel, however, were all down 17 to 26 per cent this year. The industrial metals are sensitive to China’s economy, which consumes almost half the global supply.

“The supply side is tight, but my fear is that with demand weakening it will offset all these supply concerns so we could see inventories begin to pick up,” said INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir.


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Future of Ottawa: Coffee with Francis Bueckert





Francis Bueckert: When it comes to the current landscape of coffee-roasting companies and independent cafes in Ottawa, I think we are at a really interesting moment in time. There are more local roasters that are doing artisanal small-batch production—with more attention to the quality and origin of the beans.

With larger corporations such as Starbucks closing locations, it has opened a bit of space for local players to grow. We have been lucky to work with many folks in the coffee-roasting community, and we have found that there is a willingness to collaborate among different coffee roasters. For example, when Cloudforest started back in 2014, we were roasting our coffee at Happy Goat and it was the expertise of their head roaster Hans that helped me learn how to roast. Other companies such as Brown Bag Coffee have also lent a hand when we needed extra roasting capacity. There are others, such as Lulo, Mighty Valley Coffee, Bluebarn, The Artery, and Little Victories that are also part of the growing local coffee community. It’s small roasters like these who have shown me what a coffee community can look like, and that we can help to elevate each other, rather than being locked in competition.

If you care to make a prediction… What’s happening to the local café industry in 2021?

We believe that there is hope and that 2021 can be a big pivot year for small roasters and cafes.

This year will not be ideal from a business point of view. However, it could create a shift in people’s attitude toward where they get their coffee. We are holding out hope that people will support the roasters and cafes that are local to help them economically survive what is in all reality a very difficult time.

It all depends on where consumers decide to go this year. People are starting to recognize that supporting large corporations at this moment will be at the cost of the local roasters and cafes. There is the growing realization that a future where there is only Amazon, Walmart, and Starbucks would be pretty bleak. So we have an opportunity this year to support the kind of local businesses that we want to see thrive.

In your wildest dreams, what will the landscape for local coffee roasters and cafés look like in your lifetime?

In my wildest dreams, all of the coffee roasters and cafés would be locally owned and independent. They would all be focused on direct trade and artisanal coffee. Each different coffee roaster and café would know exactly where their coffee came from. Ideally, each company would be a partnership between the farmers who grow the beans and the people here selling them. There would be a focus on how to cooperate and collaborate with the farmers in the countries of origin to share the benefits around. We would all work together and share orders of cups, lids, and other packaging so that we could get better bulk pricing. In this way, we would make our local coffee community so efficient that the large corporate coffee companies wouldn’t even be able to compete.

We would also like to see people use coffee as a way to create social good. For example, we started Cloudforest as a way of helping support farmers in Ecuador who were taking a stand against large mining companies. This remote community stood up to protect their environment, so that they could have clean drinking water and soil for the next generation. They started an organic coffee cooperative to help show that there are other models of development, and we are doing our part year after year to help support their vision. They have a vision of development that does not include mass deforestation and contamination, and organic coffee is a key (among others) to show that another way forward is possible.

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Special events in the Ottawa Valley dominate annual OVTA tourism awards





The Ottawa Valley Tourist Association hopes that its annual tourism awards will provide a little sunshine during what is a dark time for local tourism operators because of the pandemic.

The Ottawa Valley Tourism Awards are presented annually by the Ottawa Valley Tourist Association (OVTA) to individuals, businesses, and events that recognize the importance of working together for the growth of the local tourism industry, as well as offering exceptional visitor experiences.

“After a year that saw a lot of businesses in the hospitality and tourism industry being challenged like never before, the annual Ottawa Valley Tourism Awards represent a bit of light on the horizon” said Chris Hinsperger, co-owner of the Bonnechere Caves.

The Ottawa Valley Tourist Association’s (OVTA) Awards Committee co-chairpersons, Meghan James and Chris Hinsperger, said they were very pleased with the recent nominations received, especially in the Special Events category. Submissions were received for The Farm to Fork Dinner Series at the Whitewater Inn; Light up the Valley; The Eganville Curling Clubs’ Rock the Rings; The Ontario Festival of Small Halls ; The Bonnechere Caves On-line Underground Concert Series; The Opeongo Nordic Ski Clubs’ Ski Loppet; The Tour de Bonnechere — Ghost de Tour 2020; and The Bonnechere Caves Rock ‘n Roll Parking Lot Picnic.

“During a time when communities were challenged, it is nice to see that people still made an effort to get together and celebrate, albeit under certain conditions. It just shows the creativity and resiliency of our tourism Community here in the valley” said Meghan James, director of sales at the Pembroke Best Western.

There are three Award categories: The Marilyn Alexander Tourism Champion Award, The Business of Distinction and The Special Event of the Year.

Hinsperger, is excited about this year’s awards.

“During this pandemic the hospitality and tourism industry was the first to be hit, was the hardest hit and will be the last of our industries to fully recover. As Valley entrepreneurs we owe it to ourselves, to our businesses and to our communities to be an active part of that recovery. Our livelihood and economic recovery depends on our efforts. And we will get back to welcoming people from all over the world to share a little bit of the place we are privileged to call home. This awards process leaves myself and others fully optimistic about our positive outcomes.”

Award winners will be announced at the Ottawa Valley Tourist Association’s virtual annual general meeting on Monday, May 31.

The OVTA is the destination marketing organization for the Upper Ottawa Valley and proudly represents more than 200 tourism businesses, comprised of attractions and outfitters, accommodation, food, beverage and retail establishments, artists and galleries, municipalities, as well as media and industry suppliers. The OVTA is supported by the County of Renfrew, Renfrew County municipalities and the City of Pembroke.

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Future of Ottawa: Farming with Jeremy Colbeck





Jeremy Colbeck: Well first, let’s talk about what we mean by farming. Although farms, and farming as an occupation, are in decline across Canada, they are still a major part of our rural landscape. That’s even more true for a strange city like Ottawa which includes a LOT of rural areas and whose urban boundary takes, what, three hours to cross? About 40 per cent of the rural land in Ottawa is farmland. Most of that farming is corn and soybean cash-crop, as well as some dairy and livestock farming. That’s mostly conventional farming (the kind that is profitable but not exactly where you take your kids on a Saturday).

There are also a lot of agri-tourism businesses in Ottawa, which give you that oh-so-good Saturday spot for family donkey-petting and apple-picking. And it’s totally understandable from a business perspective, but sometimes surprising to find out, that even though they grow some of the Christmas trees they sell, they might also be reselling some that come from much larger farms far away. The farmland around Ottawa is also inflated in price because of its proximity to the city, where it is in demand by would-be hobby farmers—folks who want to do some farming on their property in their spare time but make their money (to subsidize their small-scale farming habit) elsewhere. Unfortunately, many of these properties will have large mansions built on them, which will then make them completely unaffordable for the average farmer

There’s also a segment of small-to-medium-sized Ottawa farms that grow “premium” (artisanal, unique, extra-fresh, ecologically- or organically-grown etc…) products that they sell directly to local eaters via farmers’ markets or other direct marketing channels, including on-farm stores and farm stands. That’s where BeetBox fits in.

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