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Investors Were Spooked About Profits. Now Come the Facts.

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It’s time to see the numbers.

Investors are about to get a read on the health of corporate America, as businesses begin releasing quarterly profit reports and laying out expectations for the coming year.

The results may resolve a roaring debate on Wall Street that has pitted economists, who have argued that the economy remains healthy, against investors, who pushed stocks to the brink of a bear market over concerns that growth is waning.

“As we hear from more companies about how the year ended, we’ll get more color on which side has a better feel, the economics community or the equity community,” said Lori Calvasina, head of United States equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

On the whole, the numbers are expected to be solid. Wall Street analysts estimate that, when all the results are in for S&P 500 companies, fourth-quarter profits will have risen 15 percent over a year earlier. That would be the fifth-straight period of double-digit profit growth, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.

It doesn’t guarantee investors will be happy. The last round of results, which began to arrive in October, showed even faster growth but did little to stem the stock market’s rapid sell-off at the end of the year.

That’s in part because Wall Street is looking ahead: how factors like a global slowdown and rising interest rates will affect future profits. Investors won’t have to wait long, as next week will bring results from banks including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, as well as companies like Delta and Netflix.

Here are some of the questions investors will be seeking answers to as they weigh whether they went too far with the sell-off.

For much of 2018, investors were surprisingly willing to shrug off risks posed by the trade war that erupted between China and the United States, the world’s two largest economies.

But as the dispute has dragged on, and stretched from its original focus on America’s yawning trade deficit with China to seemingly intractable questions over technological and geopolitical dominance, it’s starting to take a toll.

China’s economy is showing signs of weakness, and that’s bad news for companies that count the country as a major market.

Apple recently slashed its sales forecast for the first time in 16 years, citing weak sales of iPhones in China, where the economy is growing at its slowest pace in a decade. The South Korean giant Samsung — a huge producer of both smartphones and semiconductors — similarly cut its profit outlook, citing weak global growth. And the impact isn’t limited to tech. Ford, FedEx, Starbucks and Tiffany have all noted weakness in China as a risk in recent months.

Furthermore, it isn’t just China. The slowdown is rippling through other economies. Germany’s industrial engine, which exports high-end autos and industrial equipment to China, is sputtering and dragging on European growth, and Japan’s economy — the world’s third largest — contracted in the third quarter.

For companies that aren’t heavily exposed to foreign markets, the outlook for domestic consumption, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of America’s economic activity, is what matters. On that front, the news is still mostly good.

Last year consumer sentiment measures showed Americans to be largely inured to a noisy political and economic climate.

There are good reasons this resilience could continue. Wages are rising, gas prices have fallen, and Americans who stand to benefit from the Trump administration’s tax overhaul could start to see higher tax refunds roll in over the coming months.

“It’s tough to again have a recession when consumers are getting more money from tax refunds and oil prices are lower,” said Keith Parker, head of United States equity strategy at UBS.

Companies have confirmed that view. In its earnings report last month, Darden Restaurants, the parent company of Olive Garden, noted that consumers were splurging, adding to their entrees and “buying up.”

“Right now, we think the consumer is in a really good place,” Eugene Lee, Darden’s chief executive, said on a conference call after the company’s earnings release.

Still, stock market moves typically lead consumer sentiment, meaning December’s sharp sell-off could take some of the fizz out of the mood of American shoppers. Even after a recovery in the early days of 2019, the S&P 500 remains more than 10 percent below its September peak.

The federal shutdown could also dampen spirits. Previous episodes of government dysfunction, such as the 2011 fight over raising the debt ceiling and the 2013 government shutdown, were associated with sharp drops in consumer confidence.

For large employers, rising wages will cut into profits unless they find a way to get customers to pay higher prices.

A plan by Amazon to pay a $15 hourly wage to its 250,000 employees in the United States — as well as roughly 100,000 seasonal workers — is expected to take a significant chunk out of its profits.

In November, TJX Companies, the parent of retailers like Marshalls, T.J. Maxx and HomeGoods,  all of which appeal to consumers because they keep prices low, also offered cautious guidance for the fourth quarter in the face of rising labor and shipping costs.

Wages aren’t the only things rising. Increasing commodity prices, transportation costs and interest rates are typical conundrums for corporations in latter stages of an economic expansion.

The emergence of those pressures on corporate profits is one reason investors have grown increasingly worried about stocks.

Executives don’t mind paying more for wages, raw materials and shipping if sales keep rising as the economy continues to grow. But if the outlook darkens, executives will be quick to snap their wallets shut.

The American economy still looks strong. More than 300,000 jobs were created in December. Unemployment remains below 4 percent. Through the third quarter, the economy was on track for its best annual performance since 2005.

Still, uncertainty about what’s to come could dissuade some decision-makers from pulling the trigger on new investments in real estate, plants and equipment. Such capital spending is crucial to keeping the economic expansion on track, making any broad pause in spending a potential pitfall for growth.

There are signs that the outlook is becoming increasingly murky. While reporting earnings on Wednesday, the homebuilder Lennar said it couldn’t offer investors a forecast for 2019 because of “continued softness and uncertainty” in the housing market, which has been squeezed by rising mortgage rates.

Such comments, as well as any mentions of plans to delay production or expansion plans, will be of intense interest to investors this earnings season both for the individual companies involved and for the possible impact of those decisions on the American economy.

“That could itself lead to a future slowdown,” said Maneesh Deshpande, head of United States equity strategy at Barclays.

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The 3 Best Canadian Tech Stocks I Would Buy With $3,000 for 2021

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The majority of the Canadian tech stocks went through the roof in 2020 and delivered outsized returns. However, tech stocks witnessed sharp selling in the past 10 days, reflecting valuation concerns and expected normalization in demand. 

As these high-growth tech stocks shed some of their gains, I believe it’s time to accumulate them at current price levels to outperform the broader markets by a significant margin in 2021. Let’s dive into three tech stocks that have witnessed a pullback and are looking attractive bets. 

Lightspeed POS

Lightspeed POS (TSX:LSPD)(NYSE:LSPD) stock witnessed strong selling and is down about 33% in the last 10 days. I believe the selloff in Lightspeed presents an excellent opportunity for investors to invest in a high-growth and fundamentally strong company. 

Lightspeed witnessed an acceleration in demand for its digital products and services amid the pandemic. However, with the easing of lockdown measures and economic reopening, the demand for its products and services could normalize. Further, it faces tough year-over-year comparisons. 

Despite the normalization in demand, I believe the ongoing shift toward the omnichannel payment platform could continue to drive Lightspeed’s revenues and customer base. Besides, its accretive acquisitions, growing scale, and geographic expansion are likely to accelerate its growth and support the uptrend in its stock. Lightspeed stock is also expected to benefit from its growing average revenue per user, innovation, and up-selling initiatives.     

Shopify 

Like Lightspeed, Shopify (TSX:SHOP)(NYSE:SHOP) stock has also witnessed increased selling and has corrected by about 22% in the past 10 days. Notably, during the most recent quarter, Shopify said that it expects the vaccination and reopening of the economy to drive some of the consumer spending back to offline retail and services. Further, Shopify expects the pace of shift toward the e-commerce platform to return to the normal levels in 2021, which accelerated in 2020.

Despite the normalization in the pace of growth, a strong secular shift towards online commerce could continue to bring ample growth opportunities for Shopify, and the recent correction in its stock can be seen as a good buying opportunity. 

Shopify’s initiatives to ramp up its fulfillment network, international expansion and growing adoption of its payment platform are likely to drive strong growth in revenues and GMVs. Moreover, its strong new sales and marketing channels bode well for future growth. I remain upbeat on Shopify’s growth prospects and expect the company to continue to multiply investors’ wealth with each passing year. 

Docebo 

Docebo (TSX:DCBO)(NASDAQ:DCBO) stock is down about 21% in the last 10 days despite sustained momentum in its base business. The enterprise learning platform provider’s key performance metrics remain strong, implying that investors should capitalize on its low stock price and start accumulating its stock at the current levels. 

Docebo’s annual recurring revenue or ARR (a measure of future revenues) continues to grow at a brisk pace. Its ARR is expected to mark 55-57% growth in Q4. Meanwhile, its top line could increase by 48-52% during the same period. The company’s average contract value is growing at a healthy rate and is likely to increase by 22-24% during Q4. 

With the continued expansion of its customer base, geographical expansion, innovation, and opportunistic acquisitions, Docebo could deliver strong returns in 2021 and beyond.

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Manitoba to invest $6.5 million in new systems

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WINNIPEG – The province of Manitoba is investing $6.5 million over three years to replace technical systems used in healthcare facilities, including replacing current voice dictation and transcription services with more modern systems and upgrading the Provincial Health Contact Centre (PHCC)’s triage, call-recording and telephone systems, Health and Seniors Care Minister Heather Stefanson (pictured) announced.

“Our government is investing in the proper maintenance of information and communications technology to ensure digital health information can be safely stored and shared as needed,” said Stefanson. “These systems will ensure healthcare facilities can continue to provide high-quality services and allow Manitobans to get faster access to healthcare resources and information.”

Dictation, transcription and voice-recognition services are used by healthcare providers to write reports. There are currently approximately 80 healthcare sites across Manitoba using some combination of dictation, transcription and voice-recognition services. Many of these systems are nearing the end of their usable lifespans.

“Across our health system, radiologists and nuclear medicine physicians use voice-dictation services to help create diagnostic reports when reading imaging studies like ultrasound, nuclear medicine studies, X-rays, angiography, MRI and CT scans,” said Dr. Marco Essig, provincial specialty lead, diagnostic imaging, Shared Health. “Enhanced dictation and voice-recognition services will enable us to work more efficiently and provide healthcare providers with quicker access to these reports that support the diagnoses and treatment of Manitobans every day.”

The project will replace telephone-based dictation and transcription with voice-recognition functions, upgrade voice-recognition services for diagnostic imaging and enhance voice-recognition tools for mobile devices.

“Investing in more modern voice-transcription services will help our health-care workers do the administrative part of their jobs more quickly and effectively so they can get back to the most important part of their work – providing top-level healthcare and protecting Manitobans,” said Stefanson. “The transition to the new system will be made seamlessly so that services disruptions, which can lead to patient care safety risks, will not occur.”

The new systems will be compatible with other existing systems, will decrease turnaround times to improve patient care and will be standardized across the province to reduce ongoing costs and allow regional facilities to share resources as needed, Stefanson added.

The PHCC is a one-stop shop for incoming and outgoing citizen contact and supports programs such as Health Links–Info Santé, TeleCARE TeleSOINS and After-Hours Physician Access, as well as after-hours support services to public health, medical officers of health, home care and Manitoba Families.

The current vendor that supplies communications support to the PHCC is no longer providing service, making it an opportune time to invest in an upgraded system that will provide better service to Manitobans, the minister said, adding the project will provide the required systems and network infrastructure to continue providing essential services now and for the near future.

“The PHCC makes more than 650,000 customer service calls to Manitobans per year to a broad spectrum of clients with varied health issues. This reduces the need for people to visit a physician, urgent care or emergency departments,” said Stefanson. “The upgrade will also allow Manitobans in many communities to continue accessing the support they need from their home or local health centre, reducing the need for unnecessary travel.”

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Telus and UHN deliver services to the marginalized

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Telus’s Health for Good program has launched the latest of its specially equipped vans to provide medical services to the homeless and underserved, this time to the population of Toronto’s west end. The project relies not only on the hardware and software – the vans and technology – but on the care delivered by trained and socially sensitive medical professionals.

For the Toronto project, those professionals are working at the University Health Network’s Social Medicine program and the Parkdale Queen West Community Health Centre. The city’s Parkdale community, in the west end, has a high concentration of homeless and marginalized people.

First launched in 2014, Telus’s Health for Good program has delivered mobile clinics to 13 Canadian cities, from Victoria to Halifax. Originally designed to deliver primary care, the program pivoted to meet the needs of patients in the COVID-19 pandemic, said Nimtaz Kanji, Calgary-based director of Telus Social Purpose Programs.

Angela Robertson of the Parkdale Queen West Community Health Centre (CHC) asserted that marginalized people are particularly susceptible to the spread of COVID-19, as they don’t have access to the basic precautions that prevent its spread.

The clinic is located near a Pizza Pizza franchise; homeless people shelter under its overhang on the weekends, she said. Some have encampments under nearby bridges.

“The public health guidelines and requirements call for things that individuals who are homeless don’t have,” Robertson said. “If the response calls for isolation, that suggests people have places to isolate in.”

And in the shelter system, pre-COVID, the environment was very congregate, with many people in the same physical space, said Robertson. Some homeless persons, in order to keep themselves safe, have created encampments, and the city has opened up some hotel rooms across the city to create spaces for physical distancing.

Even proper hand-washing and hygiene becomes a challenge for the homeless.

“COVID calls for individuals to practice constant hand-washing. Oftentimes, individuals who are homeless use public washroom facilities that may be in restaurants or coffee shops, and many of those spaces are now closed. So there are limitations to accessing those facilities. It’s not like they’re in a community where there are public hand-washing facilities for people who are homeless.”

The mobile health clinic allows the CHC to take “pop-up testing” into communities where there is high positivity and where additional COVID testing is needed. The CHC can take testing into congregate sites and congregate housing to provide more testing, Robertson said.

“The other piece that we will use the van to do is, when the vaccine supply gets back online, and when the health system gets to doing community vaccinations … we hope that we can be part of that effort.”

COVID has contributed to a spike in cases of Toronto’s other pandemic: opioid overdoses. Some community members are reluctant to seek care because of the stigma attached to substance abuse; and COVID has a one-two punch for users.

The first rule of substance abuse is, don’t use alone; always be with someone who can respond to a potential overdose, ideally someone who can administer Nalaxone to reverse the effects of the overdose, Robertson said. “It’s substance abuse 101,” and the need for social distancing makes this impossible.

Secondly, COVID has affected the supply chain of street drugs. As a result, they’re being mixed increasingly with “toxic” impurities like Fentanyl that can be deadly.

The van itself is a Mercedes Sprinter, modified by architectural firm éKM architecture et aménagement and builder Zone Technologie, both based in Montréal. According to Car and Driver magazine, the Sprinter line – with 21 cargo models and 10 passenger versions – is “considered by many to be the king of cargo and passenger vans.”

Kanji said the platform was chosen for its reputation for reliability and robustness.

While the configuration is customized for each mobile clinic, it generally consists of two sections: A practitioner’s workstation and a more spacious and private examination room, so patients can receive treatment with privacy and dignity, Kanji said. The Parkdale clinic is 92 square feet.

“While the layouts vary across regions, they typically include an examination table and health practitioners’ workstation, including equipment necessary to provide primary healthcare,” the Telus vice-president of provider solutions wrote in an e-mail interview. The Parkdale Queen West mobile clinic is designed for primary medical services, including wound care, mobile COVID-19 testing and vaccination efforts, harm reduction services, mental healthcare and counseling.

The clinic equipped with an electronic medical record (EMR) from TELUS Health and TELUS LTE Wi-Fi network technology.

Practitioners will be able to collect and store patient data, examine a patient’s results over time, and provide better continuity of care to those marginalized citizens who often would have had undocumented medical histories.

The EMR system is Telus Health’s PS Suite (formerly Practice Solutions). It is an easy-to-use, customizable solution for general and specialty practices that captures, organizes, and displays patient information in a user-friendly way. The solution allows for the electronic management of patient charts and scheduling, receipt of labs and hospital reports directly into the EMR, and personalization of workflows with customizable templates, toolbars, and encounter assistants.

But like others tested for COVID, it’s a 24-48 hour wait for results. Pop-up or not, how does the mobile team get results to patients who have no fixed address?

The CHC set up a centre for testing in a tent at the Waterfront Community Centre. Swabs are sent to the lab. “We are responsible for connecting back with community members and their results,” Robertson said.

“This is the value of having Parkdale Queen West being in front of the testing, because many of the community members who are homeless we know through our other services, and there is some trust in folks either coming to us to make arrangements to collect their results, or we know where they are.”

This is a key element of the program, said Kanji – leveraging community trust. In Vancouver downtown east side, for example, where there is a high concentration of marginalized members of the indigenous community, nurse practitioners are accompanied by native elders in a partnership with the Kilala Lelum Health Centre.

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