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Encore deux semaines et la paralysie aux États-Unis coûtera plus que le mur

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L’économie américaine avait déjà perdu 3,6 milliards de dollars américains au 21e jour de paralysie partielle du gouvernement, vendredi dernier, soit 1,2 milliard de dollars par semaine, a évalué S&P Global Ratings dans une étude citée par la chaîne de télévision d’information financière CNBC.

Ses analystes soulignent que la fermeture des services de l’État pourrait donc réduire le PIB réel des États-Unis de 6 milliards de dollars si l’impasse budgétaire se prolongeait jusqu’à une cinquième semaine.

Cette somme dépasse le montant réclamé aux deux chambres du Congrès par le président américain. Donald Trump exige que la loi budgétaire inclue une somme de 5,7 milliards de dollars pour la construction du mur à la frontière sud du pays, sans quoi il y opposera son veto.

Dans son analyse, S&P Global Ratings tient compte des divers coûts liés à la fermeture gouvernementale, comme la perte de productivité des travailleurs en congé forcé et la diminution des ventes réalisées par les entrepreneurs qui font des affaires avec le gouvernement.

Plus cette fermeture se prolonge, plus l’économie subira des dommages collatéraux.

Extrait de l’analyse de S&P Global Ratings

La somme de 1,2 milliard « peut sembler dérisoire pour la plus grande économie du monde, mais cela signifie beaucoup pour les travailleurs qui essaient de couvrir les frais de leur ménage sans chèque de paie », mentionne la firme de notation.

Les 800 000 fonctionnaires fédéraux sont privés de leur salaire depuis vendredi dernier.

« Plus la situation perdure, plus elle sera difficile pour les travailleurs qui dépendent d’un chèque de paie pour joindre les deux bouts », signale S&P Global Ratings, évoquant les paiements hypothécaires, les versements de loyer et les remboursements de cartes de crédit.

Les employés du gouvernement récupéreront sans doute leur salaire non versé une fois le gouvernement rouvert, comme cela a été le cas par le passé, nuance le groupe financier. « Il est peu probable que les nombreux employés contractuels du gouvernement qui sont sans emploi en raison de la fermeture de l’usine récupéreront leur salaire », avertit-il cependant.

Les services de l’État fédéral sont fermés depuis le 22 décembre, soit 24 jours, un record dans l’histoire américaine. La plus longue paralysie avait duré 21 jours, sous le démocrate Bill Clinton, en 1995-1996.

Diminution des dépenses à la consommation en vue

Un employé de Best Buy passe devant un étalage de caméras.Selon bon nombre d’analystes, la paralysie gouvernementale pourrait avoir un effet sur la consommation de biens non essentiels. Photo : Reuters / Rick Wilking

Les détaillants pourraient eux aussi commencer à ressentir les effets de la baisse des dépenses de consommation.

Les pertes économiques pourraient atteindre au moins 2 milliards de dollars par semaine, selon les analystes de Wells Fargo.

La situation risque de toucher plus particulièrement les entreprises qui vendent des biens jugés non essentiels, par exemple des produits technologiques, et celles qui exercent leurs activités dans des secteurs comptant une forte proportion de travailleurs de l’État, jugeait le groupe financier dans une note envoyée à ses clients vendredi.

L’effet auprès des détaillants qui vendent des biens de première nécessité semble pour le moment être atténué, mais cela pourrait changer, avertit-il.

« Si la fermeture devait avoir un impact sur les programmes de prestations, comme le Programme d’aide supplémentaire à la nutrition, les entreprises comme les magasins à un dollar, Walmart et la chaîne de supermarchés Kroger pourraient s’en ressentir », estime le groupe financier.

La banque d’investissement américaine Jefferies Group a pour sa part souligné que les détaillants, mais aussi les restaurants situés dans le secteur le plus touché par la situation actuelle, soit Washington, D.C., le Maryland et la Virginie, en subiront vraisemblablement les contrecoups.

Le retard dans les prêts fédéraux pourrait aussi nuire à la vente de maisons, ajoute le groupe financier.

La paralysie gouvernementale a déjà amené les analystes à revoir à la baisse leurs prévisions de croissance économique.

Les économistes de J.P. Morgan prévoient maintenant une croissance de 2 % pour le premier trimestre, en baisse d’un quart de point.

Ceux de Bank of America Merrill Lynch ont pour leur part réduit de 0,1 point de pourcentage la croissance prévue au quatrième trimestre, en baisse à 2,8 %.

Si les services gouvernementaux sont rouverts avant la fin du trimestre, une partie des dépenses perdues pourrait être récupérée une fois que les travailleurs auront recommencé à recevoir leur salaire, mais les intrants du PIB, comme la productivité, sont définitivement disparus, fait valoir CNBC.

En 2013, la fermeture gouvernementale, qui avait duré 16 jours, avait réduit le PIB de 0,4 % au quatrième trimestre.

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Future of Ottawa: Chefs with Kathryn Ferries

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This week in the Future of Ottawa series, we’re taking a deep dive into the bar and restaurant industry—what it’s like now and where it’s headed. Read on for a guest post from Kat Ferries on the future of chefs, or read posts from Quinn Taylor on bars or Justin Champagne on fine dining.

Kat Ferries is Sous-Chef at Stofa Restaurant and a 2020 San Pellegrino North American Young Chef Social Responsibility Award Winner.

Apt613: What is the current landscape for chefs in Ottawa?

Kat Ferries: There is such great talent in Ottawa with so many chefs either being from here originally or have returned after traveling and have since opened some incredible restaurants. Many chefs have focused menus that really highlight their strengths, their heritage, and their passion for food. Dominique Dufour of Gray Jay, Marc Doiron of Town/Citizen, Steve Wall of Supply & Demand, Daniela Manrique Lucca of The Soca Kitchen, and so many more are all cooking up beautiful and delicious food in this city.

If you care to make a prediction… Where is the food industry in Ottawa going for chefs in 2021?

The industry right now is, unfortunately, in a really tough spot. The pandemic has been so devastating on mental, physical and emotional levels for so many and I know that many of my friends in this industry are burning out. There are many discussions happening on work/life balance and what is healthy for everyone. Some may never return to the long, hard hours we are expected to put in day after day and instead opt for a more flexible schedule or hire more staff to lighten the load on everyone, with some even leaving the industry indefinitely. Some may throw themselves back into this industry 10x as hard and create some of the best restaurants and concepts we’ve yet to see. I think all that will happen after the pandemic though.

For this year, it’s mostly about survival and finding happiness in creating what we can in the spaces we have while following all the laws and guidelines from public health officials. I think we will see more chefs creating experiences for guests that we otherwise wouldn’t have: think pop-ups, virtual dinner clubs, cocktail seminars, collabs, etc.

Where in your wildest dreams could the Ottawa culinary community grow in your lifetime?

I would love to see the Ottawa community support more small, local restaurants so our streets are bustling late into the nights like they are in Montreal, New York, or Europe. Having a local restaurant to frequent should be so much more commonplace, where you can enjoy a night out more often than just Friday or Saturday night. I would also love to see many more of our local chefs highlighted for the amazing food they create!

What is the best innovation to take place in your industry since the pandemic started affecting Ottawa?

Turning all our restaurants into mini-markets for customers to enjoy the food and wine of their favourite places at home. We have bottle shops for all your wine, beer and cocktail needs as well as menus that reflect what each restaurant does best. Some have even pivoted to a point where they are 100% a store and have paused any type of “service-style” dining.

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Future of Ottawa: Fine Dining with Justin Champagne

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This week in the Future of Ottawa series, we’re taking a deep dive into the bar and restaurant industry—what it’s like now and where it’s headed. Read on for a guest post from Justin Champagne on the future of fine dining, or read posts from Kathryn Ferries on chefs or Quinn Taylor on bars.

Justin Champagne went to culinary school at Northwest Culinary Academy of Vancouver. He got his start in fine dining restaurants at C Restaurant under Chef Robert Clark, then at Hawksworth Restaurant under Chef Eligh. He staged at three-Michelin-starred Atelier Crenn under Chef Dominque Crenn before moving to Ottawa and spending five years at Atelier, working his way up to Sous-Chef. He’s now the Head Chef of Bar Lupulus.

Apt613: What is the current landscape of fine dining restaurants in Ottawa?

Justin Champagne: Ottawa punches well above its weight class when it comes to quality restaurants in general. Fine dining is no exception to that—we have some amazing chefs here that are doing really great things. We also have some phenomenal sommeliers in town that are a huge factor when it comes to a guest’s experience in a fine dining restaurant. While there are some fantastic fine dining restaurants in town I do believe there’s room for more, and definitely room for more creativity and unique styles of cooking! I think we’ll see more small fine dining restaurants opening up, “micro-restaurants” where there’s maybe 20 seats. This will be over the next few weeks as the industry did take a big hit financially with COVID-19, but we still have a lot of great young chefs who have the fire inside of them to open their own location!

If you care to make a prediction… Where is fine dining going in Ottawa in 2021?

I’m not sure it’ll be 2021 or 2022 with the way the vaccine rollout and stay-at-home order is going, but I do expect there to be a wave of people looking to go out to fine dining restaurants. We’ve been cooped up cooking for ourselves or ordering takeout for over a year now. People are getting antsy and ready to go out and have fantastic meals again with exceptional wine and not have to worry about doing all the dishes afterwards!

Where in your wildest dreams could fine dining go in Ottawa in your lifetime?

That’s the fun part about “fine dining,” it can go anywhere and it can mean many things. Fine dining is about amazing service and well thought out, unique food that the kitchen spent hours fussing over, being meticulous in execution. Outside of that, you can have a lot of fun and be creative in different ways. My wildest dream I guess is that fine dinning restaurants begin to thrive and are able to charge without backlash the kind of prices that they need to charge in order to keep the lights on and pay their staff a proper living wage!!

What is the best innovation to take place in your industry since the pandemic started affecting Ottawa?

I’m not sure if I would really say there’s been a best “innovation” in my industry during the pandemic, but I will say that seeing the “adaptability” by all the restaurants in Ottawa has been incredibly inspiring. Ottawa’s food scene has always been a tight-knit community, “everyone helping everyone” kind of mentality. And this pandemic has really helped show that—restaurants helping restaurants through all of this!

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Ottawa’s Giant Tiger chain celebrating 60 years in business

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OTTAWA — An Ottawa staple, along with what might be the most famous cat in Canada, are celebrating a milestone Monday.

Giant Tiger is 60 years old.

“It all started with a very simple idea,” says Alison Scarlett, associate VP of communications at Giant Tiger. “Help Canadians save money every single day. Bring them products that they want and need. When you focus on those core principals, it really is quite simple to succeed.”

In 1961, Gordon Reid opened the first Giant Tiger in Ottawa’s ByWard Market. The company now has more than 260 locations across Canada and employs roughly 10,000 people.

“If you were at our store on opening day 60 years ago, the in store experience would be a little bit different from your local Giant Tiger store today. So that’s changed. A lot of our products and offerings have changed or expanded as Canadian consumers wants and needs have changed or expanded,” says Scarlett.

The homegrown department store continues to be a favourite for many shoppers looking to for the best deals on everyday products.

Helen Binda has been shopping here for decades.

“Many years. I can’t remember when. I’ve always loved Giant Tiger. It’s always been a good store for me.”

“I think its amazing and I think that we need more department stores,” says shopper Fay Ball. “And if it’s Canadian, all the better.”

The Canadian-owned family discount store carries everything from clothing to groceries, as well as everyday household needs. They’ve also expanded their online store and like most retailers provide curbside pickup during the pandemic.

“Doing what is right for our customers, associates, and communities. That has enabled us to be so successful for all of these years,” says Scarlett.

To celebrate, Giant Tiger is hosting a virtual birthday party at 7 p.m. Monday with live musical performances from some iconic Canadian artists.

You can visit their Facebook page to tune in. 

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