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Oilpatch giant sours on Alberta crude cuts, warns changes put jobs at risk

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Oilsands giant Canadian Natural Resources, once a high-profile supporter of Alberta’s mandatory production cuts, says it is “extremely concerned” by revisions to the strategy set for next month, warning the changes “will hurt jobs” if the government carries through.

In a letter to suppliers last week, Canadian Natural Resources said while it had supported the government’s actions to cut back oil output in the province, it feels amendments to the formula will see the company burdened with a “unreasonable and discriminatory” share of the curtailment.

“The revised methodology is flawed and clearly discriminatory to Canadian Natural and as a result directly impacts the heavy oil regions of Alberta,” reads the letter dated Jan. 22, a copy of which was obtained by CBC News.

The Calgary-based company would not comment Monday on the contents of the letter.

But in its missive, Canadian Natural warns it will be required to cut back a third more production in February than in January if the changes are enacted, “and the reduced production will unnecessarily impact jobs significantly in the heavy oil region,” including in Bonnyville, Elk Point and Lloydminster area.

A government spokesman said Canadian Natural is being treated fairly, adding that the company “fought hard” for the policy that the government agreed was in best interest of Albertans. 

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley announced the province’s curtailment strategy in December. (Jason Franson/Canadian Press )

“CNRL has benefited substantially from this temporary policy,” spokesman Michael McKinnon said in a email. 

“We disagree with their characterization and it’s disappointing to see them threatening suppliers with job losses when they’re being treated the same as other producers.

“CNRL is being treated fairly and equitably under this policy, which they support, and the company will need to be accountable for their own regional business decisions.”

Last fall, Canadian Natural Resources was one of the most high-profile oil producers to call on the province to impose mandatory output cuts as a temporary measure aimed at tackling a costly crude backlog.

Premier Rachel Notley responded in December by announcing the government would cut oil production 8.7 per cent, or roughly 325,000 barrels per day. The cuts affect about 25 larger bitumen and conventional producers. The curtailment will end at the end of 2019.

Notley said the effect of the cuts would be measured each month to ensure production is not reduced any more than necessary. Government officials also said producers had been provided the latitude to manage the cuts by assigning them on a per-operator basis, rather than on individual wells or projects.

Since the curtailment came into effect, the price gap between Canadian and U.S. benchmark oil has narrowed to under $10 US a barrel. Last fall, it was over $50 US.

But in its letter, Canadian Natural said it backed the government’s actions to curtail production based on using the average of the six highest months from November, 2017 to October, 2018 to calculate the allowable volume for the first month of the curtailment beginning Jan. 1.

The company says the amended methodology for calculating the baseline uses the single-highest month of production over that same period, “which has resulted in a number of serious concerns.”

Canadian Natural Resources logo is shown at the company’s annual meeting in Calgary in May. (THE CANADIAN PRESS)

“Canadian Natural is being burdened with 35 [per cent] of the curtailment total target volume, whereas Canadian Natural’s production accounts for 23.9 [per cent] of all production volumes subject to curtailment,” the company wrote. “As a result, Canadian Natural is taking 46 [per cent] more curtailment than its share of production.”

The company said such a significant curtailment is not sustainable operationally, adding that the ECHO pipeline would need to be shut in, along with the production associated with it. Although Canadian Natural said this would impact jobs, it did not estimate how many.

In a statement, two MLAs for the region, both members of the United Conservative Party, said they want an explanation for the changes to the curtailment policy. Dave Hanson and Scott Cyr quoted a news report that estimated 500 to 1,000 jobs were at risk.

While the UCP urged the government to impose mandatory cuts last fall, the MLAs said it wasn’t meant as a “blank cheque.” 

“The NDP Energy Minister needs to come to our community and explain their change,” they said in a release.

McKinnon said the province is reviewing how much has been drawn down from all storage levels across Alberta.  More details, including the next steps, will be available soon, he said. 

“We’ve listened carefully to industry in applying this decision fairly, and ultimately this is a temporary measure as we fight for short, medium and long-term solutions to get top dollar for Alberta’s oil,” he said.

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Majority of Canadian workers willing to take less pay for a workplace pension plan: survey

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A majority (70 per cent) of Canadians say they’re willing to forgo a higher salary in exchange for a workplace pension plan, according to a new survey for the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan by Abacus Data.

The survey, which polled more than 2,000 Canadian adults in April, signals an opportunity for employers to build back the post-coronavirus pandemic working landscape better by expanding access to good retirement plans — whether they’re defined benefit, defined contribution or group registered retirement savings plans, says Steven McCormick, senior vice-president of plan operations at the HOOPP.

According to the survey, a secure retirement remains of greater concern for Canadians than concerns about their health, debt load and job security. McCormick says this has been a consistent worry the HOOPP has seen in survey results over the past couple of years. Nearly half (48 per cent) of respondents said they’re very concerned about having enough money in retirement, while 31 per cent were highly concerned about their personal debt load and 26 per cent cited their job security. Close to half of respondents expressed high concerns for their physical (43 per cent) and mental (40 per cent) health.

In addition, the pandemic has harmed the finances of more than half (52 per cent) of Canadians’ surveyed and it’s had a particularly disproportionate affect on the finances of younger adults. Adults aged 44 and younger said they’re twice as likely (25 per cent) to have had their finances greatly harmed, compared to those over the age of 60 (12 per cent).

Generally, younger adults tend to work in roles that may have been impacted most by the pandemic, says McCormick, whether in service industries that were shut down or frontline health care that have been busy but don’t always come with access to a pension plan. “Affordability is an issue, so I think their worries increased during this time.”

And while almost half (46 per cent) of Canadians surveyed said they’ve saved more money than they would have since the onset of the pandemic, among these respondents, over half (52 per cent) didn’t put any of their savings toward their retirement. Overall, most (63 per cent) Canadians surveyed haven’t set aside or saved anything for retirement in the past year, a five-point increase since 2019.

McCormick says this may be due to uncertainty or hesitancy about whether people’s immediate needs outweigh longer-term needs. And with 55 per cent of respondents noting they were very concerned about the cost of day-to-day living, he adds that rising prices have fuelled insecurity and worries so people are creating their own emergency funds right now.

While there’s a segment of the population who’ve saved more and, for them, the pandemic has created wealth, he doesn’t see this as a common narrative in the survey data. “If you don’t have access to a workplace pension or the opportunity to have things like automatic enrolment, the uncertainty of the time may have you holding onto money,” says McCormick. “In Ontario, we’re more optimistic about the pandemic than we were maybe a month ago, but there are still people worrying about whether there’ll be a fourth wave.”

In addition, more than two-thirds (67 per cent) of respondents said a retirement crisis is looming and 65 per cent said saving for retirement is prohibitively expensive. It’s a common and shared dream for many people in looking forward to a secure retirement, says McCormick, noting for many, making that dream a reality remains elusive.

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What Canadians need to know about moving to the U.S. for more affordable real estate

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Like many real estate markets around the world, U.S. home prices have run up during the pandemic to the point of some saying it’s in bubble territory.

But the whole time and for years before, Canada has said “hold my beer” as prices rocket through the stratosphere in a number of major markets.

The discrepancy really jumps off the page in comparisons of the most recent benchmark prices and household income. As the chart below from Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments, comparing Canada to the U.S. shows, a picture paints a thousand words, especially when it’s presented as an exploding gif.

Jessy BainsThu., June 24, 2021, 6:43 p.m.·9 min read

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. President Barack Obama said on Monday the U.S. housing market was
Home prices have run up in the U.S. but are mostly more affordable than major Canadian markets.(REUTERS)

Like many real estate markets around the world, U.S. home prices have run up during the pandemic to the point of some saying it’s in bubble territory.

But the whole time and for years before, Canada has said “hold my beer” as prices rocket through the stratosphere in a number of major markets.

The discrepancy really jumps off the page in comparisons of the most recent benchmark prices and household income. As the chart below from Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments, comparing Canada to the U.S. shows, a picture paints a thousand words, especially when it’s presented as an exploding gif.https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=JessySBains&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3R3ZWV0X2VtYmVkX2NsaWNrYWJpbGl0eV8xMjEwMiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJjb250cm9sIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1388165660598063104&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fca.finance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Fwhat-canadians-need-to-know-about-moving-to-the-us-for-more-affordable-real-estate-131344769.html&sessionId=06d9c3e7619ac1c3744b64cd9cc60845665a4a57&siteScreenName=Yahoo&theme=light&widgetsVersion=82e1070%3A1619632193066&width=550px

The situation has gotten so bad for first-time buyers that many may have given up. Ontario is home to markets with the biggest recent run-ups. A survey by Right at Home Realty found 74 per cent of younger Ontarians aged 18 to 34 say they may never be able to afford a home where they currently live.

Michelle Makos, broker-owner at Royal Heritage Realty, sells real estate for a living but doesn’t like what she’s seeing, especially after a conversation with her recently engaged daughter who wants to buy a first home.

“She made a comment that they may have to move to the United States to find something they can afford and truly I would hate to lose my children simply because they feel like the housing situation here is out of their reach,” Makos told Yahoo Finance Canada.

“Being in real estate, it just made me realize, the one thing I love doing is the one thing that could cost me my daughter, if she were to leave.”

So she took to Twitter to see if other Canadians were feeling the same way as her daughter. She conducted a Twitter poll that showed many were in the same boat.

She was flooded with messages from frustrated Canadians who were seriously considering leaving the country because of high home prices and shared many of them on Twitter. She eventually put a selection of the messages she received in a handy document for everyone to see.

Jessy BainsThu., June 24, 2021, 6:43 p.m.·9 min read

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. President Barack Obama said on Monday the U.S. housing market was
Home prices have run up in the U.S. but are mostly more affordable than major Canadian markets.(REUTERS)

Like many real estate markets around the world, U.S. home prices have run up during the pandemic to the point of some saying it’s in bubble territory.

But the whole time and for years before, Canada has said “hold my beer” as prices rocket through the stratosphere in a number of major markets.

The discrepancy really jumps off the page in comparisons of the most recent benchmark prices and household income. As the chart below from Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments, comparing Canada to the U.S. shows, a picture paints a thousand words, especially when it’s presented as an exploding gif.https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=JessySBains&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3R3ZWV0X2VtYmVkX2NsaWNrYWJpbGl0eV8xMjEwMiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJjb250cm9sIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1388165660598063104&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fca.finance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Fwhat-canadians-need-to-know-about-moving-to-the-us-for-more-affordable-real-estate-131344769.html&sessionId=06d9c3e7619ac1c3744b64cd9cc60845665a4a57&siteScreenName=Yahoo&theme=light&widgetsVersion=82e1070%3A1619632193066&width=550px

The situation has gotten so bad for first-time buyers that many may have given up. Ontario is home to markets with the biggest recent run-ups. A survey by Right at Home Realty found 74 per cent of younger Ontarians aged 18 to 34 say they may never be able to afford a home where they currently live.

Michelle Makos, broker-owner at Royal Heritage Realty, sells real estate for a living but doesn’t like what she’s seeing, especially after a conversation with her recently engaged daughter who wants to buy a first home.

“She made a comment that they may have to move to the United States to find something they can afford and truly I would hate to lose my children simply because they feel like the housing situation here is out of their reach,” Makos told Yahoo Finance Canada.

“Being in real estate, it just made me realize, the one thing I love doing is the one thing that could cost me my daughter, if she were to leave.”

So she took to Twitter to see if other Canadians were feeling the same way as her daughter. She conducted a Twitter poll that showed many were in the same boat.https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=JessySBains&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3R3ZWV0X2VtYmVkX2NsaWNrYWJpbGl0eV8xMjEwMiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJjb250cm9sIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1395756831100882947&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fca.finance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Fwhat-canadians-need-to-know-about-moving-to-the-us-for-more-affordable-real-estate-131344769.html&sessionId=06d9c3e7619ac1c3744b64cd9cc60845665a4a57&siteScreenName=Yahoo&theme=light&widgetsVersion=82e1070%3A1619632193066&width=550px

She was flooded with messages from frustrated Canadians who were seriously considering leaving the country because of high home prices and shared many of them on Twitter. She eventually put a selection of the messages she received in a handy document for everyone to see.https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=JessySBains&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3R3ZWV0X2VtYmVkX2NsaWNrYWJpbGl0eV8xMjEwMiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJjb250cm9sIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1397895446048169985&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fca.finance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Fwhat-canadians-need-to-know-about-moving-to-the-us-for-more-affordable-real-estate-131344769.html&sessionId=06d9c3e7619ac1c3744b64cd9cc60845665a4a57&siteScreenName=Yahoo&theme=light&widgetsVersion=82e1070%3A1619632193066&width=550px

“We as a country can do better,” said Makos.

But not so fast if you’re like any of these people and thinking of moving across the border. There are a number of things to consider.

Immigration rules for moving from Canada to the U.S.

The first thing to consider is immigration laws. If you work from home, you can’t just grab your laptop and start working from the U.S.

Sara Herbek, managing partner at Global Immigration Associates, says you need a U.S. employer to sponsor you and be qualified for a TN or L-1 visa.

“If a Canadian employer has a U.S. entity, this could potentially be another option, however, it depends on the visa category,” Herbek told Yahoo Finance Canada.

It’s the same deal if you plan to work for a U.S. employer.

“Canadians are able to present TN and L-1 visa petitions at the border (now by air is recommended versus by land),” said Herbek.

“In other visa categories, the employer would need to file the visa petition with United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) and obtain approval first.”

Herbek says it’s important to have all of the correct paperwork when entering the U.S. to avoid being turned away.

“They should ensure they have original documents when appearing at the border: approval notice, as applicable, educational documents, birth or marriage certificates,” said Herbek.

Mortgage rules for buying a home in the U.S.

Unless you’re lucky enough to be able to buy a home outright, you’ll need a mortgage and things are mostly similar to obtaining a mortgage in Canada if you’re moving to the U.S. permanently, but with some key differences.

Rob Mclister, mortgage editor at RATESDOTCA says one of them is proof of income.

“It may be harder to prove income to the U.S. lender’s satisfaction if you have already moved to the U.S. before applying for a mortgage,” Mclister told Yahoo Finance Canada.

“That’s because most mainstream U.S. lenders generally want to see at least two years of U.S. tax returns. If this is the case, find a good broker in the U.S. to advise you.”

If you plan to buy before your immigration and job situation are sorted out, Mclister says most lenders will want 20-25 per cent down instead of the 5 per cent minimum in Canada.

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Canadian Mortgage Debt Hits $1.69 Trillion, Fastest Rate of Growth Since 2010

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Canada is experiencing a real estate boom, and it’s fueled by a flood of cheap mortgage debt. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows mortgage credit reached a record high in April. That’s no longer a surprise since it’s a regular occurrence, but the rate of growth is noteworthy. Canadians added the equivalent of 6% of GDP to mortgage debt over the past year. It’s now growing at the fastest rate in a decade, as people scramble to buy as much house as possible. 

Canadian Mortgage Debt Hits $1.69 Trillion, After Growing 6% of GDP

Canadian mortgage debt reached a record high, adding a massive amount in just a short period. The balance reached $1.69 trillion in April, up 1.06% ($17.74 billion) from the month before. The annual increase works out to 7.80% ($122.25 billion), which is just a mind-blowing number. For context, $122.25 billion is the size of ~6% of the country’s GDP. With this kind of scale, it shouldn’t be a surprise how dependent the economy is on real estate. 

Canadian Residential Mortgage Debt

The outstanding dollar amount of residential mortgage credit held by Canada’s instituional lenders.

Canadian Mortgage Debt Is Growing At The Fastest Rate Since 2010

The rate of mortgage growth isn’t just high for this period — it’s high by historical standards. The annual rate of growth is the largest seen since 2010. For the month of April, you need to go a little further back — to 2009. Usually, during a recession, it’s difficult to get households to borrow. In Canada, households ramped up the borrowing and purchases of expensive goods.

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