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Ottawa’s top doctor can’t say when COVID-19 will peak as models suggest up to 34,000 cases in Ottawa

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OTTAWA — Ottawa’s top doctor suggests there could be up to 34,000 cases of COVID-19 in Ottawa today.

During a presentation to Council on the COVID-19 pandemic in Ottawa, Medical Officer of Health Dr. Vera Etches said the reason for the large discrepancy between the confirmed cases and the modelling data is due to the limited testing criteria for COVID-19. 

Dr. Etches told Council that modelling data from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is predicting right now “the number of cases in Ottawa is likely between 11,000 and 34,000.”

“As we get more information, we will continue to update the website.”

Dr. Etches says the modelling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is “based on the deaths we have seen and extrapolating to what this means about the overall number of infections in the community.”

On Wednesday, Ottawa Public Health reported there were 429 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ottawa, including seven deaths.

Dr. Etches showed a model based on laboratory-confirmed cases in Ottawa, that suggested the curve could flatten in May.

“We know that’s not the full picture of illness in our community.”

Dr. Etches added “people are looking for hope, they’re looking for a sign we’re flattening the curve .. this curve looks very much into the future that the rate of increase of cases is going to slow down. That is encouraging.”

But the Medical Officer of Health says the lack of testing is a challenge, and health officials want to expand the testing.

“This testing we’ve been doing so far has been limited to health-care workers, people who are hospitalized and people with more severe illness or live in a long-term care home.”

When asked about the model showing a potential flattening of the curve by Councillor Matthew Luloff, Dr. Etches said “it does demonstration that based on the patterns to date, we aren’t seeing a steep increase at this point.”

Dr. Etches also showed data of projected ICU hospitalizations in Ottawa, saying the model is “encouraging.”

It shows if person-to-person contact in the community is reduced by 50 per cent, ICU hospitalizations could spike to more than 1,000 this summer. If residents reduce contact by 70 per cent, ICU hospitalizations would stay within the current hospital capacity.

Dr. Etches told Council “our public health measures right now have made a difference and we need people to stay focused on this.”

“To stay home, to stop the spread and to stay safe.”

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Biometric Vaccines Are Here Preceding Forced Digital ID

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The future of vaccines is here, just in time for the coming forced digital ID. This isn’t some sci-fi movie based on some conspiracy theorists’ idea of Revelation where every living being is required to be tagged. Biometric vaccines are real, are in use and have been deployed in the United States.

Biometric vaccines are immunizations laced with digital biometrics, created from merging the tech industry with big pharma. This new form of vaccine injects microchips into the body creating a global ID matrix to track and control every person. Not only has this satanic system already been rolled out, billions may already have been injected unaware.

ID2020 Alliance, a program aimed at chipping every person on earth, has collaborated with GAVI (Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations) to inject these microchips into the body through immunization. 

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How to get more of everything you love about Ottawa

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We love Ottawa, and we want to help you make the most of living in the capital.

Ottawa Magazine is launching a new membership program, with front-of-the-line access to events, special offers at cultural institutions, and exclusive access to one-of-a-kind food and drink experiences at the city’s best restaurants. And of course, a subscription to our award-winning magazine.

Basically, everything you love about the city… just more of it.

Sign up for more information now and you’ll be one of the first to hear when memberships go on sale!

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Where to Live Now: A data-driven look at Ottawa neighbourhoods

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What does community have to do with buying a house? Do people really want friendly neighbours, or do they just want the most square footage for their buck?

In The Village Effect: How Face-to-Face Contact Can Make Us Healthier, Happier and Smarter, Montreal psychologist Susan Pinker cited a 2010 study conducted at Brigham Young University in Idaho that analyzed relationship data for more than 300,000 people over nearly eight years. She discovered that people who were integrated into their communities had half the risk of dying during that time as those who led more solitary lives. In Pinker’s analysis, integration meant simple interactions such as exchanging baked goods, babysitting, borrowing tools, and spur-of-the-moment visits — exactly the kinds of exchanges we saw grow when COVID-19 forced us all to stay home.

For this year’s real estate feature in the Spring/Summer 2020 print edition, we crunched the numbers to find the neighbourhoods where we think you’re most likely to find such opportunities for engagement. Using data available through the Ottawa Neighbourhood Study (ONS), we chose six indicators that we believed would attract those looking to connect with the people around them. Omitting rural areas, we awarded points to each neighbourhood according to where it landed in the ranking. (In the event of a tie, we used a secondary indicator of the same theme to refine the ranking.) You’ll find the ten neighbourhoods that performed the best according to those six indicators listed below, along with resident profiles and notable destinations in each ’hood — though many have been forced to adapt to COVID-19, most are offering delivery and/or take-out, and we are hopeful they will resume normal operations once it is safe to do so.

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